{"id":97,"date":"2025-11-08T13:03:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T13:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/?p=97"},"modified":"2025-11-08T15:14:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T15:14:38","slug":"enflasyon-raporu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/?p=97","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 &#8211; Enflasyon Raporu (Kas\u0131m 2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Merkez Bankas\u0131 2025 Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti: Dezenflasyon Yava\u015flad\u0131!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Ekim ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun y\u00fczde 32,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirten rapor, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 Haziran ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin <strong>2025&#8217;in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131 <strong>vurgulad\u0131<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak TCMB, 2025 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini g\u00fcncelledi. Daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 24 olarak belirlenen 2025 y\u0131l sonu ara hedefi <sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup>korunmakla birlikte, y\u0131l sonu tahmini y\u00fczde 70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla <strong>y\u00fczde 31 ila 33 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na<\/strong> y\u00fckseltildi<sup><\/sup>. 2026 y\u0131l sonu tahmini ise <strong>y\u00fczde 13 ila 19<\/strong> aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda korundu<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-94\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dezenflasyonu Yava\u015flatan Ana Etkenler: G\u0131da ve Hizmetler<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Raporlara g\u00f6re, enflasyon tahminlerindeki bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellemenin temel nedenleri, enflasyon ana e\u011filiminin beklenenden y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oldu<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-89\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1-2.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1. G\u0131da Fiyatlar\u0131ndaki H\u0131zlanma<\/strong> Dezenflasyondaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n temel unsurlar\u0131ndan biri g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubu oldu<sup><\/sup>. \u0130\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131dada bir s\u00fcredir devam eden destekleyici seyrin tersine d\u00f6nmesi ve i\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131<sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup>. A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl 2025&#8217;te g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda belirgin art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6zlendi<sup><\/sup>. Olumsuz hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve kurakl\u0131k, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131ran temel fakt\u00f6rler olarak belirtildi<sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-90\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2. Hizmet Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki Y\u00fcksek Kat\u0131l\u0131k (Atalet)<\/strong> Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki &#8220;atalet&#8221; olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle &#8220;ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endeksleme&#8221; e\u011filimi y\u00fcksek olan kalemlerdeki fiyat ayarlamalar\u0131 dezenflasyonu yava\u015flatmaktad\u0131r<sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu grupta iki kalem \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Kira:<\/strong> Kira enflasyonu &#8220;diren\u00e7li&#8221; bir seyir izleyerek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti. Eyl\u00fcl 2025 itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k kira enflasyonu y\u00fczde 69,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>E\u011fitim:<\/strong> &#8220;Okula d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f&#8221; etkisiyle \u00f6zel \u00fcniversite \u00fccretleri, yurt, servis ve kre\u015f \u00fccretlerindeki art\u0131\u015flar , e\u011fitim enflasyonunun Eyl\u00fcl 2025&#8217;te y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 66,1&#8217;e ula\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, temel mal enflasyonu \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyrini korudu <sup><\/sup>ve Eyl\u00fcl 2025&#8217;te y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 19,9 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-91\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/3-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Para Politikas\u0131 ve Ekonomik Dengelenme<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>TCMB&#8217;nin TBMM Plan ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Komisyonu&#8217;na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunum (<code>PLAN VE B\u00dcT\u00c7E KOM\u0130SYONU SUNUMU.pdf<\/code>), bu enflasyonist bask\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 uygulanan politikalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>S\u0131k\u0131 Duru\u015f Devam Ediyor:<\/strong> &#8220;S\u0131k\u0131 parasal duru\u015f korunmaktad\u0131r&#8221;. Politika faizi Eyl\u00fcl 2025 itibar\u0131yla %40,5 seviyesindedir. Bu duru\u015f, makroihtiyati tedbirler ve likidite y\u00f6netimi ile desteklenmektedir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Talepte Dengelenme:<\/strong> Politikan\u0131n etkileri talep \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. &#8220;Talepte dengelenme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmektedir&#8221;. 2023&#8217;\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %11,2 olan toplam t\u00fcketim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2025&#8217;in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %2,5&#8217;e gerilemi\u015ftir. \u0130thalattaki yava\u015flama da belirgindir.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Finansal G\u00f6stergeler:<\/strong> Finansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k devam etmektedir. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yatay seyrederken , Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat (KKM) uygulamas\u0131 sonland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve finansal sistemde TL varl\u0131klar\u0131n pay\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rezervler ve Risk Primi:<\/strong> S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu rezervleri desteklemektedir. Br\u00fct uluslararas\u0131 rezervler 183 milyar dolara , swap hari\u00e7 net rezervler ise 57 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. CDS primi ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iyile\u015fme g\u00f6zlenmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-92\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/4-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ana Risk: Beklentilerdeki Y\u00fcksek Seyir<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Raporlar, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecindeki en \u00f6nemli risklerden birinin &#8220;enflasyon beklentileri&#8221; oldu\u011funu teyit etmektedir<sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup><sup><\/sup>. Beklentiler gerileme kaydetse de, \u00f6zellikle hanehalk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seviyelerini korumaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl 2025 itibar\u0131yla 12 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131:<\/strong> %22,3 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Reel Sekt\u00f6r:<\/strong> %36,8 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hanehalk\u0131:<\/strong> %53,0 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde risk olu\u015fturmakta ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini geciktirebilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-93\" srcset=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/5-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;S\u0131k\u0131 Duru\u015fa Devam!&#8221; mesaj\u0131 verildi.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>TCMB, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki bu zorluklara ra\u011fmen temel hedefini korumaktad\u0131r: <strong>&#8220;Fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecektir.&#8221;<\/strong><sup><\/sup>. Banka, enflasyon ana e\u011filimini ve beklentileri yak\u0131ndan takip ederek dezenflasyonun ara hedeflerle uyumlu bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in gerekli s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmektedir<sup><\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/PLAN-VE-BUTCE-KOMISYONU-SUNUMU.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"PLAN VE B\u00dcT\u00c7E KOM\u0130SYONU SUNUMU g\u00f6m\u00fcs\u00fc.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-f9c98803-e672-4b4c-b8cd-f41cdbec8229\" href=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/PLAN-VE-BUTCE-KOMISYONU-SUNUMU.pdf\">PLAN VE B\u00dcT\u00c7E KOM\u0130SYONU SUNUMU<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/PLAN-VE-BUTCE-KOMISYONU-SUNUMU.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-f9c98803-e672-4b4c-b8cd-f41cdbec8229\">\u0130ndir<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orta-Vadeli-Ongoruler.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Orta Vadeli \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler g\u00f6m\u00fcs\u00fc.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-95882aaf-f45d-4db7-b1b1-3ac38a0d1eb5\" href=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orta-Vadeli-Ongoruler.pdf\">Orta Vadeli \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Orta-Vadeli-Ongoruler.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-95882aaf-f45d-4db7-b1b1-3ac38a0d1eb5\">\u0130ndir<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 2025 Enflasyon tahminini y\u0131l\u0131n bitimine 2 ay kala(Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda) y\u00fckseltti. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yeni tahmini %31-33 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r.  MB 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 4.\u00e7eyrekte a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in % 21 ve 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 %12&#8217;idi. Beklentiye oranlanarak yap\u0131lan asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bu verilere dayan\u0131larak yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,3],"tags":[11,24,23,25,7,10],"class_list":["post-97","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sirketler","category-tr","tag-enflasyon","tag-fatih-karahan","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-merkez-bankasi-sunumu","tag-tufe","tag-turkiye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=97"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97\/revisions\/120"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=97"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=97"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/veribanka.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=97"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}